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Alt 07.04.2008, 09:40   #16
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...und damit wir Jimmy Rogers auch noch der Vollständigkeit wegen haben

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXUU_lyb0Lc
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Alt 07.04.2008, 16:33   #17
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Fed Didn't Inflate the Housing Bubble: Greenspan (ja wer denn sonst )

By Reuters | 07 Apr 2008 | 04:36 AM ET

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has defended himself from charges that easy U.S. monetary policy created the current credit crisis by inflating a housing bubble, and instead blamed professional investors.

AP
Alan Greenspan

In an article in Monday's Financial Times newspaper, Greenspan wrote that the housing bubble which inflated between 2001 and 2006 had not been unique to the United States.

"The U.S. bubble was close to median world experience and the evidence that monetary policy added to the bubble is statistically very fragile," Greenspan wrote.

Under Greenspan the Fed cut rates from 6.5 percent in late 2000 to 1.0 percent in mid-2003.

Most other leading central banks followed suit, although not to such low levels apart from the Bank of Japan.

The Fed has been accused of keeping rates too low for too long as it sought to help the U.S. economy following the collapse of internet stocks and the blow to confidence from the Sept.11, 2001 attacks.

But Greenspan noted that U.S. economic conditions were still sluggish as late as June 2003, when the Fed cut rates to the 1.0 percent low.

It began raising them a year later but even then, he said, monetary conditions were not bubble-making.

"Both the monetary base and the M2 indicator rose less than 5 percent in the subsequent year (2004), scarcely tinder for a massive credit expansion," he wrote.

Instead, Greenspan placed blame for the U.S. housing and subprime mortgage crisis at the door of investors.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/23948760



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Alt 07.04.2008, 17:17   #18
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Alt 08.04.2008, 17:37   #19
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mesodor39 Heute, 16:41

Im übrigen stelle ich mir gerade vor, was man mit den in den USA und in Spanien versenkten Geldern hier in Deutschland alles positiv hätte gestalten können:

bessere Straßen und Gehwege,

Förderung erneuerbarer Energien

Zuschüsse zu Energiesparmaßnahmen für die Menschen hier in Deutschland.

Dann braucht man auch nicht anderer Menschen Nahrungsmittel zu Treibstoff / Brennstoff zu verarbeiten.

Alleine das was IKB, Sachsen-LB, Bayern-LB, West-LB, Peanuts-Bank, Dresdner Bank unsere angeblich bodenständigen Sparkassen und was weiss ich noch alles für Banken und Versicherungen in den USA an Geldern vernichtet haben.....

und für die nun Aktionäre und Steuerzahler aufkommen sollen.

Hart erartbeitete Ersparnisse lösen sich, fahrlässig von gierigen und dummen Managern "angelegt" nun in Luft auf.
Und diese Lumpen kommen, wie es ausschaut völlig ungeschoren und teils mit dicken Boni und Abfindungen davon.

Widerlich.

Von den vielen Existenzen und Betrieben die durch die so angezettelte Depression zerstört werden und durch die vorbeschreibenen Fehllenkungen bereits zerstört wurden, will ich hier garnicht erst anfangen.

Gold- und Silberbesitz sind da ein ehr schwacher Trost für real entgangene und durch Verbrecher und Taugenichtse zu Nichte gemachte Chancen.

Immerhin: die Eule hat das Handtuch geworfen. Wurde ihr zu stressig. Wg. Finanzkrise. Da sieht man mal wieder zu was unsere Politiker taugen, wenns mal drauf ankommt..... ...zum Weglaufen.


...kann man so für etliche andere Länder übernehmen :o
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Alt 08.04.2008, 19:00   #20
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.......Soziale Unruhen durch Nahrungsmittelpreise
Die Nahrungsmittelpreise explodieren, gerade ist der Reispreis dabei, zu haussieren. Prompt wird von mehreren Stellen vor sozialen Unruhen in der Welt gewarnt, für den Fall, dass die Nahrungsmittel noch teurer werden. Soziale Unruhen, die vielleicht ganze Staaten erfassen, können sich ebenfalls als Belastungsfaktor für die Weltwirtschaft erweisen......

aus Investor's Daily - 08.04.2008
von Jochen Steffens

*********************************************
....Hauptsache Bio Sprit statt Vollkornbrot

*********************************************


Haiti violence


Hungry Haitians storm the presidential palace over the high cost of living

They stormed the presidential palace demanding food (Eduardo Munoz/Reuters)
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Alt 08.04.2008, 19:18   #21
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Posted On: Tuesday, April 08, 2008, 2:55:00 AM EST

Rules Were Made To Be Broken?

Author: Jim Sinclair


Dear CIGAs,

Rules for the purpose of maintaining solvency of a financial entity known as capital versus commitment are broken.

Rules are changed.
What good are rules?


Big Bad Boys go bad.
Bad Boys rescue Big Bad Boys.


Average Joe goes bad.
Average Joe gets flushed.


The abyss between those that have and have not grows exponentially.
Blue collar means slave.


The systems weakens further
In the end, there are only CONSEQUENCES


Consequences cannot be broken.
Consequences cannot be changed.
Consequences are worse than bad.
Nobody can rescue anyone from Consequences
Consequences guarantee that everybody gets flushed to some degree.
Consequence is the only sure thing in this unsure world.


Cause and effect - that is all there is.

This is it. Are you ready?

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Love letter from the Fed to Dear JPMC
Fed Relaxes Restrictions for J.P. Morgan-Bear Deal


Fed Loosens Capital Rules for JPM
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Alt 09.04.2008, 11:29   #22
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Dies ist das Hauptmodell von Armstrong, das Economic Confidence Modell (Vertrauensmodell), wobei die Zyklenlänge 8.6 Jahre ist, was sich als Pi 3.14159 x 1000 = 3.142 Tage berechnet.



Wirtschaftliches Vertrauen ist entscheidend für Kursentwicklungen in den Finanzmärkten, ganz besonders bei Blasen. Auf der psychologischen Ebene kann man Blasen auch als überbordendes und unrealistisches Vertrauen definieren. Die beiden 8.6-Jahres-Tiefs 1994.25 und 2002.85 waren Tiefs des 4-Jahres-Zyklus, 1994.45 sogar taggenau. Das Hoch 1989.95 war das Allzeithoch des Nikkei, 1998.55 taggenau das Hoch der Aktienmärkte vor dem Crash 1998. Das letzte Vertrauenshoch 2007.16 (= Ende Februar 2007) korrelierte genau mit dem Platzen der Immobilienblase und dem ersten Auftreten der Subprime-Probleme.

http://www.amanita.at/d/d-neu.htm
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Alt 10.04.2008, 09:04   #23
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Zitat:
Zitat von syracus

China's yuan breaks through key level

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China's currency nudged past 7.0 yuan to the U.S. dollar Thursday, a milestone bound to please Beijing's trading partners and dismay exporters struggling to remain competitive in overseas markets.

The official Xinhua News Agency reported that the yuan was trading at 6.9920 to $1 -- the first time it has ventured below the 7 yuan mark since the government loosened the unit's peg to the dollar in 2005. The yuan has gained about 18 percent in value since then.

That has made Chinese-made products more expensive overseas while shrinking the yuan-denominated value of profits from exports. The stronger yuan is squeezing China-based exporters, including multinationals, at a time when they already are wincing at surging costs for labor, energy and materials.

"Our costs keep rising and the dollar is falling so we make less money than ever before," said a quality control manager at EI Global, an exporter of small promotional items.

"I heard my boss might even switch away from exports," said the manager, who gave only his surname, Tao.

Beijing limits the yuan to a narrow trading band, contending that restrictions are needed to protect China's developing financial industries.

The United States wants the yuan to appreciate faster, and some American lawmakers are calling for punitive tariffs on Chinese imports. Washington reported a $256.3 billion trade deficit with China last year, its highest on record with any country.

During a visit to Beijing last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson reiterated calls for Beijing to let the yuan trade more freely. China has been noncommittal, vowing only to keep the yuan steady while moving gradually toward a more open exchange regime.

A stronger yuan makes imports of key commodities like crude oil less costly in local terms. But for some industries, the foreign exchange losses are outstripping the gains.

"These are hard times for us," says Wei Yaoting, a textile trader in Shanghai that exports large shipments to the United States.

A typical U.S. order, received last July and delivered in November, was not paid for until February. Over those seven months, the dollar-denominated payment declined in value, as the yuan rose.

"We end up swallowing the losses," said Wei, manager of Shanghai HTC Holdings Import & Export Co.

"The more exports, the bigger the losses. We just break even," Wei said. "We're even considering giving up selling to foreign markets that trade in U.S. dollars."

Although most foreign trade, in China and elsewhere, is denominated in dollars, companies increasingly are setting contracts in euros or British pounds to avoid foreign exchange losses, said Ma Xinzheng, deputy chief editor of WebTextiles.com, an industry research group.

A majority of 1,000 textile traders responding to a survey released this week by WebTextiles said they were setting deals in other currencies.

"Some traders try their best not to deal in U.S. dollars," Ma said.

Some are giving up business altogether. Another survey, by the China Cotton Textile Association, found that nearly half of cotton manufacturers wanted to quit. Investment in the sector fell by 15 percent last year, it said

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINES...y.ap/index.html

was/wer löst den $ ab - und die Folgen
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Alt 10.04.2008, 12:01   #24
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....but if you are just a normal passenger - help yourself
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Alt 10.04.2008, 18:16   #25
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Goldman Sachs Lies About Level 3 Values

April 9, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis


The pirates at Goldman Sachs announce they have figured out the value of their hard to value Level 3 Assets. And guess what? According to them, these pieces of paper increased in value by nearly 40% even as all others in the world collapsed! Isn't that amazing? Or rather, utterly, nakedly fake? GS stocks fell on this stunning news. Oil shot up to $112 a barrel and in response, the US is screaming at Switzerland to not buy energy products from Iran. Who will win this contest? Iran Kitty or Miz Liberty? I'm betting on the cat.


Soviet cartoon about Pirates attacking:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUIf.../money_matters/


Goldman Sachs Level 3 Assets Jump, Exceeding Rivals'
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable securities firm, reported an increase in hard-to- value assets during the first quarter, exceeding those at Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Goldman's so-called Level 3 assets surged 39 percent to $96.4 billion at the end of February from $69.2 billion in November, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The ratio of Level 3 to total assets rose to 8.1 percent from 6.2 percent.

Investors are wary of banks and brokerages with difficult- to-sell securities on their books as $232 billion of writedowns and credit losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market have crippled earnings. More assets have become difficult to value in the last three months as investors shunned a wider array of credit, reducing trading.

Level III junk can't be priced except by the entity holding these things. So lo and behold, Goldman Sachs is doing really well because these things, these invisible things, these QSEPs, these qualifying special purpose entities we discussed yesterday, ROSE in value! Up and up and up! To the heavens! What on earth were these things that went utterly and wildly contrary to the desperately contracting asset value markets? Can these wondrous entities be described so we can judge the truth of this claim? Should we all trust Goldman Sachs?


Of course not! No way! Not only did these bizarre and unknowable QSEPs shoot upwards in value, the ratio of these things compared to the things that obviously dropped in value, rose, too! This is one of life's mysteries. If anyone is tempted to buy Goldman Sachs' inflated value stocks based on this news story, all we can say is, 'HAHAHA. Fools, money and partings are so fun, aren't they?'


And this news is so childish. Anyone who is sane and reads online commentary about these sorts of things won't be fooled. So who is fooled? Are there any fools left? Usually, in bear markets, both the wise and the fool are stripped down. The wise expect rationality and are hammered by the various schemes set up to save the status quo that is dying. The fools keep listening to the con artists working in the mainstream media and rush into the markets to buy thinking it has bottomed out when it is barely begun. But the con artists: they have to run this childish game until they can pull out without losing their shirts. So this news is set up to fool fools, not to reveal important information.



Note that in 2004, GS was trading at below or at $100 a share. But by May, 2007, it shot up to $225 a share. Then came the disaster of July, 2007. The Japanese carry trade began to unwind. GS dropped like a rock. Then, after the giant government bail outs as well as the sudden rate drops by the Fed, their stock hit its all-time high of $250 a share. Since then, it has lost all of the bubble gain from 2007.


Since Goldman Sachs has many operatives stationed at many points within our government as well as other countries' governments, the desire to keep their collective stocks rising is very strong as we can see. They want desperately to float above the financial sewer they flushed down so much toilet paper. According to the stock ticker, they lost value today. And the after hours trade is all down, down the drain. So I am guessing, the 'fools with money to part' are departing despite this stunning news.




*************************************************************



Goldman sells $500 mln of Chrysler debt at very deep discount
Goldman Sachs placed $500 million of Chrysler Automotive's loans at a price of 63 cents Wednesday to an investor group that included hedge funds, a person familiar with the matter said. Those loans are trading between 64 cents and 66 cents at the moment, another person familiar with the matter said, indicating some demand for the debt at this deeply discounted price. At such a price, the yield on the debt is more than 20%.

JP Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns Bear-Stearns-Troubles are also underwriting the Chrysler Automotive deal, but Goldman Sachs sold part of its stake independently of the syndicate. It's a practice that's becoming more common in the leveraged loan markets as banks look to trim their exposure to risky leveraged buyout debt that they have been stuck holding onto since the credit crunch erupted last summer.

It's also not the first time Goldman has broken away from this syndicate to sell Chrysler Automotive debt. The bank originally held about $1.6 billion of the $7 billion first-lien loan issued to finance Cerberus Capital Management LP's purchase of an 80% stake in Chrysler Group from DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX). According to a report by Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary & Data unit, Goldman had already sold about $300 million of that exposure.

There is no honor within a conspiracy of con artists! Note how Goldman Sachs bailed out on the others without warning. This should be a lesson to all of them: trust? HAHAHA. Pickpockets are more trustworthy. Of course, just like last month when GS boasted that they conned their investors into buying bad tranche waste paper while GS skated away with profits, so it is here: they will say, 'Aren't we the smartest people on earth?' Goodfellows, all. The three headed hell hound is being burned over and over again.

April 10, 2008 - Elaine Meinel Supkis

GS
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Alt 11.04.2008, 09:00   #26
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Zitat:
Zitat von lunar

Dies ist das Hauptmodell von Armstrong, das Economic Confidence Modell (Vertrauensmodell), wobei die Zyklenlänge 8.6 Jahre ist, was sich als Pi 3.14159 x 1000 = 3.142 Tage berechnet.



Wirtschaftliches Vertrauen ist entscheidend für Kursentwicklungen in den Finanzmärkten, ganz besonders bei Blasen. Auf der psychologischen Ebene kann man Blasen auch als überbordendes und unrealistisches Vertrauen definieren. Die beiden 8.6-Jahres-Tiefs 1994.25 und 2002.85 waren Tiefs des 4-Jahres-Zyklus, 1994.45 sogar taggenau. Das Hoch 1989.95 war das Allzeithoch des Nikkei, 1998.55 taggenau das Hoch der Aktienmärkte vor dem Crash 1998. Das letzte Vertrauenshoch 2007.16 (= Ende Februar 2007) korrelierte genau mit dem Platzen der Immobilienblase und dem ersten Auftreten der Subprime-Probleme.

http://www.amanita.at/d/d-neu.htm

na das gehört leider auch dazu

News about Martin A. Armstrong, including commentary and archival articles published in The New York Times.

ARTICLES ABOUT MARTIN A. ARMSTRONG

Jailed 7 Years for Contempt, Adviser Is Headed for Prison

By MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED
Martin A. Armstrong, a financial adviser, will begin serving a five-year sentence for conspiracy to commit fraud.
April 28, 2007

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/refer...rong/index.html
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Alt 11.04.2008, 11:53   #27
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The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class

January 31, 2008 (More info) Distinguished law scholar Elizabeth Warren teaches contract law, bankruptcy, and commercial law at Harvard Law School. She is an outspoken critic of America's credit economy, which she has linked t...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

(dauert eine knappe Stunde 5 Minuten Einführung dann spricht sie)
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Alt 11.04.2008, 16:40   #28
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Page last updated at 17:04 GMT, Wednesday, 9 April 2008 18:04 UK

IMF slashes world growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the world economy will grow much more slowly in the next two years as a result of the credit crunch.

In its latest economic forecast, the IMF says that world economic growth will slow to 3.7% in 2008 and 2009, 1.25% lower than growth in 2007.

The downturn will be led by the US, which the IMF believes will go into a "mild recession" this year.

Growth in the UK will slow sharply to 1.6% in both 2008 and 2009.

It said that the UK economy would be affected by a weakening housing market, the contraction of the financial sector, and the impact on UK exports of weaker growth in the US and Europe.

Its UK forecast is substantially below the Treasury forecast of around 2% growth this year and 2.5% next year made at the time of the March Budget.

'Worst since Great Depression'

The IMF admits that the global downturn might be still more severe than it is currently predicting, and says that there is a one in four chance of a "global recession" when world growth falls below 3%.

"The financial market crisis that erupted in August 2007 has developed into the largest financial shock since the Great Depression," the report says.

The world downturn will be led by problems in the US housing market, but the IMF warns that excessive house price inflation in some European countries, including Spain, Ireland and the UK, has made them more vulnerable to a slowdown.

House prices have already fallen by around 10% in the US by some measures, and the IMF says that they may be over-valued by more than 20% in the UK, Ireland and Spain.

It is forecasting further falls in US house prices of 14% to 20% this year.

The head of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) said that crisis required measures to protect workers from the downturn.

"We need to find a better balance between the democratic voice of society, the productive dynamic of the market and the regulatory function of the state", ILO Director-General Juan Somavia said in a statement to the IMF meeting.

US recession

The IMF forecasts that the US economy will grow by just 0.5% during 2008 and will actually contract in the first half of the year.

Its recovery will be slow, with growth of only 0.6% forecast in 2009.

"The US economy will tip into a mild recession in 2008 as a result of mutually reinforcing housing and financial market cycles, with only a gradual recovery in 2009, reflecting the time needed to resolve underlying balance sheet strains," the report notes.

It says that, comparing the US economy year-on-year from the four quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008. it will be 0.7% smaller, as the recession bites in the first half of this year.

And it warns that with the scale of the credit losses to the financial sector approaching $1 trillion (£500bn), there is a risk that the crisis could get worse.

"The greatest risk comes from the still-unfolding events in financial markets," it says, warning that the current credit squeeze could "mutate into a full-blown credit crunch".

The IMF says that losses are spreading from sub-prime mortgage assets to other sectors, such as commercial property, consumer credit, and company debt.

The IMF also says that given the potential severity of the problems, "additional initiatives to support the US housing market, including the use of the public balance sheet, could help reduce uncertainties about the evolution of the US financial system" although it warned that "care would be needed to avoid undue moral hazard".

The US Congress and the Bush administration are currently deadlocked over plans for further aid to the housing sector, with Democrats in both branches of Congress proposing an expansion of financial support for home owners facing foreclosure.

European impact

The biggest impact of the US slowdown is likely to felt in Europe, which is the biggest trading partner with the US.

"Activity in the other advanced economies will be sluggish in both 2008 and 2009 in the face of trade and financial spillovers," the IMF says.

It is predicting growth in the eurozone of just 1.4% in 2008 and 1.2% in 2009, with Europe's largest economy, Germany, growing by just 1% in 2009, a sharp revision of its forecast just three months ago.

And it says that in light of the slowdown, the European Central Bank - which has kept interest rates unchanged due to concern about inflation - "can afford some easing of its policy stance".

And it suggests that in future, central banks should take more account of rising house prices when setting interest rates, in effect "leaning against the wind" to prevent house prices moving out of "normal valuation ranges".

This is an implicit criticism of the US Federal Reserve which kept interest rates at 1% for several years under former chairman Alan Greenspan.

Worldwide impact

The IMF says that the big emerging market countries like China and India which are growing rapidly will be less affected by the slowdown, although they will be affected by a slowdown in trade among the rich countries.

The rate of growth of imports into rich countries is expected to slow sharply, leading to a cut in the rate of growth of exports by developing countries.

And it warns that the spillover will more severe in Latin America or in countries linked to the dollar, which has declined sharply on world currency markets.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7338326.stm
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11 April 2008

An Accounting View of the Financial Credit Crisis


Here's a joke to cheer up GE shareholders on this difficult morning.

There are two sides of the balance sheet - the left side and the right side.
The problem is that, on the left side, there is nothing right,
and on the right side, there is nothing left!
And some weekend reading for Jeff Immelt.

As a reminder, US financial companies start reporting their quarterly results next week.





Posted by Jesse at 11:13 AM


PigMan of the Week Award


Thanks go to Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs for giving the markets some weasel-worded false encouragement Thursday morning that the credit crisis is "almost over." It helped to trigger a sucker's rally.

And "if we are in a recession, its a mild one." We'll put that one down in the books. In fact, we wish someone would take a look at your trading book.

Lloyd, who received about $70 million of compensation last year by some estimates, also said that shareholder votes on executive pay would "constrain the board and hurt the investment bank's ability to attract the best employees."

Lloyd, you get the "PigMan of the Week Award."




Posted by Jesse at 10:15 AM
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