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Alt 06.05.2011, 16:31   #8296
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gehört ja hier hin

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Zitat von lunar

06 May 2011

Year To Date Performance of a Few Dollar Denominated Assets - Currency Wars

This chart not only shows the Year-to-date returns, but also very nicely illustrates that concept called volatility, also known as risk.

The management of risk is the number one preoccupation of a successful trader. If you cannot do this, don't trade. Take long term investments and hold them in a reasonably constructed portfolio appropriate for your objectives.

It is particularly hard to describe currency risk to Americans because most of them have never been outside their country except perhaps on an insulated holiday. A surprisingly large number do not even own passports. I am not saying that these are bad things, they just are a profound phenomenon that subtly influences thinking. And unless their profession exposes them to practical currency exchange situations, they have only a cartoon like concept of currency fluctuations.

When a reasonably intelligent person remarks that gold cannot be money because its value fluctuates, while their own currency is doing loop de loops to the downside, you have to understand that they are captive to their own experience, and education has not taken them out of their deep well of subjectivity.

Granted, volatility is unusually high in the markets. But we are in a global currency war. What else would you expect?

US Ten Year Note does not include interest payments.




Posted by Jesse at 1:38 AM

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Alt 06.05.2011, 17:32   #8297
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Silver's Bubble Has Burst?


Friday, May 06, 2011 – by Staff Report

Silver loses shine in 20pc tumble The price of silver futures tumbled again on Wednesday, taking total losses to more than 20pc in a week amid fears that the precious metal represented a bubble bursting. In recent weeks, experts have warned that a dangerous bubble was forming in the silver markets. The price has soared nearly 175pc between August and the end of last week. – UK Telegraph

Dominant Social Theme: Too far, too fast. Maybe the run is over?

Free-Market Analysis: The doomsters are at it again. Every couple of months either silver or gold are in a "bubble." This is a fundamental misreading of the current bull market in money metals that probably still has three or four years to run – at least. If it gets that far. We're on record as pointing out that the dollar reserve system likely ended in 2008 when central banks around the world had to pour some US$10-US$20 TRILLION or more into world markets to salvage the banking system for the time being.

Fiat money and real money tend to run in cycles, depending on how long the Anglo-American power elite can keep the fiat system inflated. In the 1930s, 1970s and now in the 2000s, the fiat system became unbalanced and today the world's larger financial system continues to be distorted by government support. The system in fact cannot purge itself because to do so would probably put half the banking system out of business. Thus the system must reinflate despite imbalances, which is a difficult proposition.



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Alt 06.05.2011, 18:19   #8298
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Indian & Chinese Money Buys the Bloodbath in Gold & Silver

...

Today in India – the world's No.1 private gold buyer each year –The weakening trend has hardly impacted retailers activity ahead of tomorrow's peak spring gold buying festival, says one Delhi-based jeweler, speaking to the Economic Times.

Markets in the city of Lucknow are "full with activity on the eve of Akshay Tritiya, the day when buying gold or silver is considered to be extremely auspicious says the Times of India
.

The response [to the dip in global gold prices] is just overwhelming says PC Jewellers' Group director Balram Garg in New Delhi, speaking to NDTV.

We are catering to a huge rush at our showrooms across the country, says Garg, forecasting sales growth of 30-40% from the festival's already strong levels in 2010.

Asian investors bought the dip [but] gold is now below $1500," notes Standard Bank's commodity team here in London today – "a level we’ve been targeting for some time.

We see better value in a long gold position here [but] our bias still favours more downside...closer to $1450.

Another wholesale dealer reports decent Chinese buying in silver overnight, with 25 million ounces being bought at Friday morning's limit down price drop of 8% – the maximum daily move allowed by the Shanghai precious metals exchange.



http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1304687640.php
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Alt 06.05.2011, 21:45   #8299
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Friday, May 6, 2011

Silver - 8 hour chart update



Posted by Trader Dan at 12:36 PM
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Alt 06.05.2011, 23:47   #8300
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_06.html
"Our government...teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis
This morning I added a lengthy intraday commentary here.

A fifth margin increase in silver is baked into the cake for Monday May 9th. Let it not be said that the CME does not care about its biggest customers.

There was a bounce today, and sighs of relief from the beleaguered metals bulls. My own portfolio was exhibiting some fairly impressive G forces today, that made up for the faux pas of coming back in a day early. Adjustments have been made, and thank God for hedges.

So what next. Nothing goes straight up or down, and silver certainly had gotten far ahead of itself. But as noted yesterday, I do not think that we are seeing an analog of the 1980 Hunt Brothers market corner rally which was fairly specific.

But who can say what will happen? Certainly not most of the commentators whom I have read, or the people who took the time to write in and tell me what a dope I am, and how silver is going to $22.

I cannot say it enough. It is not about predicting and making one way bets. It is all about managing risk in the short term, and paying attention to the market. I signalled my own sell within a day of the top, and came back in a day and a half before the bounce, for a trade. I would have preferred to have waited longer, but the CME surprised me with the extra margin requirements. And so I adjusted my strategy and came out without taking 'the big hit.'

I think what bothers some people who write in is that I am still a long term holder of the metals. They send the oddest messages, feigning personal omniscience, and assuming some sort of undeserved pride in finally not being as wrong as they have been for a long time.

Well, sorry, but until the fundamentals change I don't change that long term portfolio, and certainly not in response to big moves either down or up, that are here and gone like flashes in the pan. That is for the short term trading portfolio.

It bothers me a bit that the Comex does not seem to be addressing the very low levels of deliverable silver in their warehouse, and the incredibly large short position held by a few of the TBTF banks who are playing with public monies as far as I can tell. That remains a potential problem even if they raise margins to 100%. And lower prices through rules changes do not help supply problems, the last time I checked. It tends to dampen supply and make the problems even worse given enough time.

I have a bias to gold, I admit. But if you want to flee a manipulated market, I am not so sure that gold is so much different than silver, but certainly a lot less volatile and more widely held as a a form of wealth by sovereign nations. I still cannot get over the fellow who claimed that gold cannot be money because its value fluctuates, and some people hold it using leverage. I don't suppose the forex market is familiar territory to someone who could say this. Everything is subject to speculation. The crux of the matter is counter party risk and the ability to manipulate supply in the long term.

Bart Chilton has indicated that the CFTC should look into the recent market action. To what end? They never release any of the pertinent data, and certainly don't do anything about it. And I suspect they won't until that aftermath, when something breaks. I like Bart, and think he wants to do the right thing. I have also been in management situations that I think are like the one he is in now, so he has all my sympathy and good feelings.

Greece is threatening to leave the EU, and I am sure that many will say, "Well let them." And yet it is not quite that simple, because the reason for leaving would be to default on their debts.

Would this extinction of euro debt result in a stronger euro? Only in the most simplistic of minds and models. Their euro debts are held to a large degree by German banks. And a Greek default would encourage Ireland to do the same, and its debt is largely held by English banks. And in turn these banks are highly interconnected to the multinational banks. The market is a mine field of counter party risk.

The banks and their servants in office are fighting and gutting regulation every day, and there is little doubt in my mind that there will be a new financial crisis, worse than the last, that will shake the dollar denominated debt to its very foundations. But that's just my opinion, and I cannot tell what the time frames might be. However, I think I know what to look for. I also still believe that the UK will lead the way in the downward spiral of the western financial oligarchy.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery.
"The extreme volatility seen in the price of silver—exacerbated by tightened margin requirements—and the la large swings in the price of gold, price of oil and in certain U.S. dollar exchange rates, do not in any way change the long-term outlooks for the U.S. dollar or for the long-term hedges against a collapse in U.S. dollar purchasing power. The current markets leave open the potential for near-term jawboning (official or through market intermediaries) and government intervention (overt or covert) to encourage relative U.S. dollar strength.

Despite whatever volatility there may be, the U.S. dollar remains on track for an eventual complete collapse in a hyperinflation, and the roots of that hyperinflation remain embedded in the system. The primary hedge against losing U.S. dollar purchasing power remains physical gold (and silver), with some funds outside the U.S. dollar. As discussed in the Hyperinflation Special Report (2011), I still like the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar."

John Williams, 6 May 2011




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Alt 07.05.2011, 00:42   #8301
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King World News


John Hathaway - Gold & Silver to Explode Again After Consolidation http://tinyurl.com/3b4src5
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Alt 07.05.2011, 01:50   #8302
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How The CBOT, Comex And CFTC Coordinated To Break The Last Silver Price Surge

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2011 19:08 -0400



Just like QE is nothing new in the monetary arena, and has seen some incarnation at least since the early 80's primarily in Japan, so parabolic commodity price surges have occurred periodically, most notably in 1980, when Bunker Hunt brought the price of silver to over $50. However, unlike any time before, never in the history of the world have we seen a coordinated worldwide monetary stimulus via relentless credit money "printing" courtesy of global central banks. In that regard, this time really is different, as there is no other remaining backstop to the world financial system: the global banking cartel has used up all its bullets and now can only double down in the most nightmarish Martingale system ever conceived, where each iteration means further fiat absolute value destruction (on a relative basis it simply means a race to the currency bottom, whereby definition only one can be in the lead at any given moment: usually the one with the biggest printing press, and greatest deflationary threat). And while many still believe that QE2 will be the last of domestic US monetary easing episodes, as Bill Gross noted earlier, it is very possible that the US may be headed into a triple-dip recession, for which the only prescription will be another QE round (with political gridlock in DC at unseen levels no fiscal stimulus is even remotely possible). If this happens, precious metals will once again surge. The only question is what will the exchanges do after the next gold and silver spike? Indeed, as we suggest, margin hikes are just the beginning. For a complete playbook of how the CME may proceed after the margin hike approach fails, we once again go back to the curious case of Bunker Hunt. Below, from the Playbook biopic of the Texas billionaire we posted yesterday, we present the walk through of how the CBOT, Comex and CFTC tried to break silver's back. Back in 1980 they succeeded. Have they, and will they succeed this time?

»
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Alt 07.05.2011, 19:52   #8303
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Trader Dan's Market Views


Trader Dan on King World News Weekly Metals Wrap


Please click here to listen to my interview with Eric King of King World News on the Weekly Metals Wrap.

http://tinyurl.com/44leq9c






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Alt 08.05.2011, 21:18   #8304
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Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange's 1 Kilo Gold Contract To End Comex Gold Futures Trading (And "Bang The Close") Monopoly

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2011 14:40 -0400

30 years ago, Bunker Hunt, while trying to demand delivery for virtually every single silver bar in existence, and getting caught in the middle of a series of margin hikes (sound familiar), accused the Comex (as well as the CFTC and the CBOT) of changing the rules in the middle of the game (and ws not too happy about it). Whether or not this allegation is valid is open to debate. We do know that "testimony would reveal that nine of the 23 Comex board members held short contracts on 38,000,000 ounces of silver. With their 1.88 billion dollar collective interest in having the price go down, it is easy to see why Bunker did not view them as objective." One wonders how many short positions current Comex board members have on now. Yet by dint of being a monopoly, the Comex had and has free reign to do as it pleases: after all, where can futures investors go? Nowhere... at least until now. In precisely 9 days, on May 18, the Hong Kong Mercantile exchange will finally offer an alternative to the Comex and its alleged attempts at perpetual precious metals manipulation.

by Dr. Porkchop
on Sun, 05/08/2011 - 14:47
#1253360
The so called free market as currently styled hates competition.


by buzzsaw99
on Sun, 05/08/2011 - 15:01
#1253392
I trust Hong Kong more than the crimex or da manhattan bankstas but that isn't saying much.


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Alt 09.05.2011, 17:16   #8305
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Sprott Launches Physical Silver Mutual Fund, Will Likely Soak Up Much Marginal Silver Inventory

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2011 10:42 -0400
And another major source of physical demand in the already very undersupplied silver market appears. Just released from Sprott Asset Management, who recently added to the perfect storm in silver by cashing out on the record PSLV premium and converting proceeds to miner stocks: "The Sprott Silver Bullion Fund is an innovative offering, being the first mutual fund in Canada to invest primarily in unencumbered, fully allocated silver bullion. The Fund's objective is to seek to provide a secure and liquid investment for investors seeking exposure to silver bullion without the inconvenience associated with direct investment." We can't wait to discover how many tons of silver this mutual fund will soak up imminently, and where the always exciting adventure of "COMEX registered silver" takes us next...



by MrBoompi
on Mon, 05/09/2011 - 11:06
#1255502
Commodities markets are joke. Prices have nothing to do with actual supply and demand, and the paper market exists so that prices can easily manipulated.
Buying or selling more silver than actually exists on the earth should be criminal behavior, and bona fide hedge exemptions should be eliminated now.
If you ask 99% of the dumbasses in this country what our economic system is, they'll tell you it's capitalism. They don't have a clue......

....ich kapier das nicht ganz PSLV ist/sollte doch auch phys. Silber
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Alt 09.05.2011, 23:43   #8306
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_09.html
"All paper will burn. Come, sit by me. We shall watch the bonfire together." - paraphrase of Another


...


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Alt 10.05.2011, 00:14   #8307
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Trader Dan's Market Views

Gold - 4 Hour chart update


The spike off of the region near $1460 and subsequent move strongly back above $1500 is indicative that a bottom has been found in the market. Keep in mind that $1500 is a psychological resistance level.This is not to say that the market now goes straight back up however and returns to its all time high in short order. What it does say is that buyers see value in gold below $1480. Now we will wait to see where selling might develop. That will give us a better feel for the new range than gold is carving out.



If you note on the chart, the 50% retracement level of the last leg down from the recent peak comes in just above the market near the $1520 level. That looks like a reasonable target for the short term. Let's see how it handles that region. A push past here could potentially press as high as the $1530 level. If price can best that, then $1550 comes back into play. If prices fade here and selling comes in, then we will head down towards $1500 again to retest that level.

...
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Alt 10.05.2011, 03:23   #8308
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And Here They Go For Round Two: CME Hikes Brent, Crude Margins By 25%, First Of Many Such Moves

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2011 17:20 -0400



Some brilliant Chicago-based exchange apparatchik just ask himself this simple question: "If it worked so well with silver, why not do it with crude?" The answer is here: the CME, as we predicted last week, just hiked initial and maintenance margins on Crude and Brent by 25%, as well as FX, and other petrochemicals. And, oh yes, this is prudent risk management, because while the CME kept margins flat when WTI was at $115, the massive spike from $97 to $102 is unbearably destabilizing. At this point one can only stand back and watch as the CME proceeds with hike after hike, in an absolute vacuum from the administration, which certainly had nothing to do with this decision. And really who cares: free capital markets died on March 18, 2009.

»
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Alt 10.05.2011, 03:24   #8309
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So About That Speculative, And Undisputed, Silver Bubble...

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2011 19:54 -0400




Lately, everyone and their grandmother speaks with 100% conviction that over the past week what happened in the silver market was nothing but a speculative bubble popping. After all, 5 consecutive margin hikes would mean that uber-levered terrorist speculators must have been scrambling with the urgency of an E-trade baby checking his voicemail and getting 99 margin call messages. So certain seems to be conventional wisdom in this allegation that nobody appears to have even checked the facts. Well, we did. For that we went to the usual place that provides a definitive breakdown of speculative indications: the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, and specifically the non-commercial specs which after netting shorts from longs would be expected to be at some parabolically unseen level ever in the history of the CFTC. Much to our surprise we found this...

»
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Alt 10.05.2011, 03:35   #8310
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Silver will be a currency too, Sprott tells NY Hard Assets Conference

Silver-Backer Sprott Still Believes -- Deeply

By Carolyn Cui
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, May 9, 2011

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/09/silver-backer-sprott-still-be...

After silver suffered its worst one-week drubbing in three decades, one of the biggest silver bulls gave a pep talk to hundreds of followers on Monday.


» read more
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