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Alt 26.04.2011, 03:21   #8221
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Trader Dan's Market Views

Silver - 8 hour chart update


The chart shows a very large volume spike on the big down candle suggesting the presence of long liquidation in a large way as many bulls rang the register once it appeared that the market was not going to take out $50. It is however a bit tricky reading this because we are also now into rollover activity where traders begin moving positions out of the May contract, which will soon be going into delivery, and into the July, which will then become the most active contract. Some of that activity tends to distort the overall volume readings. Nonetheless, the big volume down day is technically significant.

Open interest in the July is now larger than the May by the way so I will soon be shifting my analysis to that contract once its volume exceeds that of the May.

I should note two significant occurences here. First of all, there STILL IS NOT SHORT COVERING on a large scale occuring in silver based on the continued increases in open interest as the price moves higher. There may be a short in trouble but there seems to be more than enough NEW SHORTS who are willing to stand in front of this market who are not afraid of either adding on to their existing shorts or putting on a fresh new short position. I continue to find that remarkable given the size of the paper losses that the bears have been enduring. The entity involved seems to have an unlimited wallet.

The second occurence is that silver has not yet exceeded its all time high made way back in 1979 even after its spike higher in overnight trading in Asia on Sunday night.

We now need to see where the market will base after this big move up and then back down. The gap from overnight was filled in New York trading, less than 24 hours after it was formed. That is too soon to be a breakaway gap meaning it looks more like an exhaustion gap. I should point out however that generally, exhaustion gaps are preceded by breakaway gaps. We have not had even one of those occur this year.

The way I am reading this is that on the daily chart we show a spinning top formation meaning that a temporary top is in the silver market but since I have not seen any short covering of significance over the last week and since there was no breakaway gap evident on the way up, I am extremely hesitant to say this move is over to the upside or that silver will now collapse as some suggest is what normally occurs after a parabolic move.

We can definitely set back some from here but I am more inclined to look for the market to establish a new base of support instead of collapsing as some might be suggesting. What we will need to do is to allow the market to show us where this support will emerge. Currently the chart shows initial support near $46 followed by a band near $44.00 - $43.50. Let's see how things go from here.

If it is going to renew its move higher, it will need to clear $50 and hold that level on any move back.

One thing is for certain however - if the Dollar takes out 74 and cannot recover that level, silver, and gold, are both going back up.




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Alt 26.04.2011, 09:38   #8222
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Things That Make You Go Hmmm.... Like Silver Conspiracy Theories (Part 2)

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/25/2011 17:17 -0400

Grant Williams chimes in with another (first one is here) off the beaten path observation on the ongoing parabolic rise in silver (and for those confused no, silver is not tracking the CPI). "We have discussed at length in the various iterations of this publication going all"the way back to my BTIG days, the various ‘conspiracy theories’ surrounding alleged shorts in the silver futures market which are allegedly held by, amongst others, JP Morgan and HSBC. Initially, these theories were dismissed as the ramblings of the insane and, speaking as one who was called insane many times, even I have to admit that the stories were somewhat far-fetched. Far-fetched? Certainly. Impossible? Hardly. Implausible? Less so now. There have been all sorts of assertions about the fact that the short positions purported to be in place on the COMEX couldn’t, in fact, exist. These assertions, like the accusations which they attempt to answer, are all offered without proof - the general defence being along the lines of “it’s too preposterous to be true” which, to me at least, is an extremely weak offering. As silver has exploded higher, various estimates have been made at the potential losses being accumulated by those parties short of silver futures. The sums are astronomical. If we take JP Morgans alleged short position as an example, and we assume there is some truth to the assertions about the size of that position, a move to $50 could potentially cost JP Morgan upwards of $4 billion - or, as it’s still known, ‘real money’.

....also für mich wird das ganze Silber etwas sehr verwirrend - was meinsch Hoka Verfall mal abwarten und physisches (wenn es nur nicht so schwer wäre ) behalten, habe noch den ZKB-ETF
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Alt 26.04.2011, 16:32   #8223
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Gold And Silver Correction Possible But Store Of Value Demand - Especially From Asia To Support

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2011 08:42 -0400

Silver and gold are lower today after the record nominal highs seen yesterday (gold marginally and silver significantly). Gold reached $1,518.30 per troy ounce, a nominal record, while silver climbed to $49.79 per ounce, its highest nominal level since the short term parabolic spike in 1980. A period of correction and consolidation has been expected for some time and it may ensue as gold and particularly silver are overbought in the short term. However, absolutely nothing has changed with regard the primary fundamentals driving the gold and silver markets.
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Alt 26.04.2011, 17:46   #8224
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Zitat:
Zitat von lunar

.
....also für mich wird das ganze Silber etwas sehr verwirrend - was meinsch Hoka Verfall mal abwarten und physisches (wenn es nur nicht so schwer wäre ) behalten, habe noch den ZKB-ETF


Bei Silber (ZSIL) hab ich etwa 1/3 abgebaut (z.T. schon länger zurück). Dafür hab ich bei den Minen etwas nachgelegt, sollten ja gute Zahlen kommen. Jetzt hole ich noch etwas physisches Gold, ist in Schweizer Konfettiwährung ordentlich günstig, und schaue dann, wie's weiter geht, Korrektur natürlich nicht ausgeschlossen, also hedgen und/oder BTFD. Generell gehe ich von weiter steigenden Kursen aus, Rick Ackerman hat ja jetzt auch zu den Inflationisten gewechselt.

Finally, a Hyperinflation Argument That Persuades

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1303829097.php


Und vielleicht hab ich sogar mal Zeit, FOFOA's Artikel zu Ende zu lesen





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Alt 26.04.2011, 17:58   #8225
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Net Asset Value of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Predictable Expiration Action

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...n-precious.html


I had reminded you repeatedly for the past few weeks that today would be an option expiration on the Comex.

While it is hard to know specifically beforehand which way it would go, I urged caution, and gave the example of going flat myself in my own trading account. I will never tell anyone what to do, as I am no advisor, and each person's situation is unique.

But the direction for most option expirations is down, and the momentum traders are playing it. If enough of them jump in short ahead of time, it could go up because manipulation has no friends, but normally it is a period of retracement.

That big run up on Sunday night seemed odd, like a setup. It is easier to run something up on thin volumes, and then smack it down hard, gaining momentum as it were as fellows lift their trailing stops. This is a very calucated bear raid. As I recall, Andrew Maguire purported to give the CFTC the details on how certain actors in the market were coordinating their moves. But this is nothing new, is it?

Jim Cramer on how hedge funds manipulate the market.

Some of the panicked messages and talk of a crash in the metals is a bit ironic. Did you expect silver to go up endlessly without a pullback? Some of the pieces coming out seem like shameless propaganda, but one must never ascribe to bad intentions what can be attributed to stupidity. But still the funds have many allies in the media, and one needs to take note of them and remember.

I have to admit the miners have been getting hit rather hard, but this is just another characteristic of the way in which the trading desks and hedge funds have a relatively free hand in the US to manipulate the market for their own benefit, naked shorting, whatever they wish to do with no uptick rule. If you wish to reform the markets, look to the regulators and their backgrounds, and the actions they have taken with investigations. If Obama replaced Gary Gensler with Eliot Spitzer then we might see something done, but the banks would not like that, and Obama is in the process of collecting a billion dollars in campaign funds.

I have come back into the market buying selectively and with hedges. They were throwing away some decent holdings in the first half hour for example. That is a bit hard to resist, and so I didn't. Could it go lower? Yes, it could. If enough calls are converted to futures positions then we might as well expect another hit on the metals to test those new hands tomorrow and later this week.

The Fed is also meeting, which is another negative to the metals. As even Paul Volcker is reported to have said, "Gold is the enemy." Yes it is, and the statists and financial engineers and one-worlders hate it. It restrains their will to power, because they cannot create anything real, substantial, only lies and illusions.

And the dollar continues to decline, following its trend lower.

"Therefore have I have set my face like flint..." Is 50:7

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Alt 26.04.2011, 18:10   #8226
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Zitat:
Zitat von Hoka

Bei Silber (ZSIL) hab ich etwa 1/3 abgebaut (z.T. schon länger zurück). Dafür hab ich bei den Minen etwas nachgelegt, sollten ja gute Zahlen kommen. Jetzt hole ich noch etwas physisches Gold, ist in Schweizer Konfettiwährung ordentlich günstig, und schaue dann, wie's weiter geht, Korrektur natürlich nicht ausgeschlossen, also hedgen und/oder BTFD. Generell gehe ich von weiter steigenden Kursen aus, Rick Ackerman hat ja jetzt auch zu den Inflationisten gewechselt.

Finally, a Hyperinflation Argument That Persuades

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1303829097.php


Und vielleicht hab ich sogar mal Zeit, FOFOA's Artikel zu Ende zu lesen

Hoka
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Alt 26.04.2011, 23:39   #8227
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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Just Another Day in the 'Hood with the Hoods

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...-charts_26.html



The very obvious bear raid does not surprise me so much as the worthlessness of most commentary I have seen about it.

Silver has support down to about 42, maybe even 41, and still maintain its long term trend. I don't think it will go that far unless stocks sell off hard, or the JPMorganites pull out the stops. More likely is a snap back rally after the short term market rigging is done.

Who exactly would trade options on the Comex these days anyway? They are the distillation of all that is wrong in the futures markets.

Gold held like a champ today in the 1500-1520 range. I'll be curious to see if it can continue to hold 1500. If it does I consider that extremely bullish, setting up a move to 1590 unless there is a liquidity panic.

The FOMC is meeting and will announce their decision tomorrow. If they signal an end to QE it will likely be a red herring, but an excuse for more trading shenanigans.

The dollar continued to slump. It has not yet broken down in its steady decline, so I do not see the waterfall drop that so many have been predicting. It is possible but not probable unless something happens.

This metals action was market manipulation pure and simple, and a black mark on the regulators. See the intraday commentary here, especially the video from James Cramer about how trading desks manipulate markets.




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Alt 27.04.2011, 00:09   #8228
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"Gold Glitters Amid Economic Woes" - A Reuters Special Report

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2011 17:16 -0400



Gold and silver dip modestly from near all time highs and the momentum chasing brigade is screaming it's the end of the world and all ___bugs should take cover. At such a point it is useful to reanalyze the fundamentals that have brought the two key precious metals to such astronomic heights. Attached, we present a 40 pages special report from Reuters, summarizing all the recent developments in the area, for all those who still may be unsure about the alternatives provided by the metal to the traditional fiat-based monetary system.

»
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Alt 27.04.2011, 02:58   #8229
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This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, report on the world fleeing the dollar flood and the dollar fraud and about Jamie Dimons worst nightmare. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Matt Taibbi about the real housewives of Wall Street.
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Alt 27.04.2011, 09:00   #8230
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Short Sellers Now Screaming About a Buy Side Silver Conspiracy

19 comments | by: Avery Goodman April 26, 2011

It was only a matter of time. Now the talk of silver price conspiracies has shifted from long buyers to those on the other side of the fence. On April 21st, the historically anti-precious metals editorial staff of the London Financial Times ran an article titled "Silver Surge Prompts Conspiracy Theorists". Meanwhile, order was reestablished among the short side conspirators once the COMEX trading floor opened on Monday morning.....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/265...lver-conspiracy

....lesenswert


...sehe eben Jesse's comment dazu

26 April 2011

The Bankers' Silver Scam Is Unwinding

In short, Avery Goodman has come to the conclusion that silver is rising because a long term suppression racket has been exposed.

I came to this same conclusion some time ago, and recently restated it: What I Think the Fluctuations in the Comex Silver Inventory Mean.

There are probably quite a few securities attorneys have their eyes set on this one. But one also has to wonder if Obama will challenge Bill Clinton's record in selling pardons at the end of his Presidency.
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Alt 27.04.2011, 21:14   #8231
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Gold Hits New Record

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/27/2011 13:45 -0400



GOLD FUTURES RISE TO RECORD $1,522.80 AN OUNCE




by AG BCN
on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 13:54
#1212464
He is going to miss Real Madrid v Barcelona.
I can't believe anyone would be that dumb.
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Alt 27.04.2011, 22:05   #8232
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............................................
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Alt 27.04.2011, 22:31   #8233
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27 April 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Blythe Standing In the Cold Après Ski

Yesterday was options expiration and the precious metals were clubbed mercilessly and clumsily, with little attempt to hide it.

Today the metals markets rebounded strongly after a somewhat weak start.

As I had mentioned I came out of cash and bought the dip in the precious metals sector yesterday, rather heavily. There was even some picking up the fallen among those wild tigers, the silver miners, and in some size.

The buys in the stocks that had fallen to long term support were big fat targets. And they bounced with a vicious flourish today.

I flipped out of all the hedges early, and just let the metals run into the afternoon, trimming back some into the close to raise some cash back again for more opportunistic buys. Best one day performance this year.

So what next? The formation on the gold chart looks good, and the support on the correction helped to draw the cup of the inverse head and shoulders a little more firmly. Yes there will be draw downs and corrections along the way, but gold looks headed for 1590 and probably beyond, but one leg at a time.

Silver is a juggernaut. I had to force myself to buy heavily in that rugby scrum of a market yesterday and it paid off with one of my best one day gains for the last couple of years.



Thanks Blythe. You're the best, baby.



Posted by Jesse at 4:24 PM.
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Alt 27.04.2011, 23:48   #8234
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Trader Dan's Market Views

FOMC gives Precious Metals Bulls reasons for cheer


The market has obviously interpreted the FOMC news and the comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke as a signal that they are unconcerned about the effect of their policy on the US Dollar, which is sinking further into the abyss. This has traders and investors moving strongly into the gold and silver markets, with gold soaring into a new all time high in nominal terms and silver shooting up a whopping 5%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar has now convincingly broken down below critical chart support near 74 on the USDX and looks on target to sink as low as 72. I have said it several times here on this site and over at jsmineset - if the Dollar breaks down below 72 on that chart and cannot recover that level within a couple of sessions, we will be witnessing the historic demise of the currency and the probable end of its role as the global reserve currency.

Thanks Ben and thanks to all the Fed governors whose foolish, inept, and short-sighted idiocy has set this nation on a path that will make the IMF prediction of its sliding into second place behind China, indeed come to pass. No nation ever kept its place of economic ascendancy by deliberately killing its own currency. An economically strong nation, with a solid manufacturing sector, the rule of law, an ethic of thrift, low taxes, reasonable regulation, etc, will by default have a strong currency.

The plight of the Dollar is now a commentary on the decline of our beloved nation. It speaks with a more pure voice than any analyst could ever aspire to and what it is crying is disheartening to an extreme for those with ears to hear it.

History has the advantage of being relatively objective in its analysis as it is removed from the passions of the era. It is with that in mind that I can confidently say it will render a harsh and severe criticism of those who led our nation and its monetary policy during this period as they presided over its decline.






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Alt 28.04.2011, 09:28   #8235
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28 April 2011

Gold Reserves Per Person

Where are Canada, the UK, and Australia?


Chart: The Economist

Posted by Jesse at 1:01 AM

...schön wär's
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